Probability+Models

= 7-SP7 = =Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.=

a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. [7-SP7a] b. Develop a probability model (that may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. [7-SP7b]
 * Example: If a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
 * Example: Find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

Third Grade > Seventh Grade Eighth Grade
 * ACOS 2009 Correlation **
 * 15 - Determine the likelihood of different outcomes in a simple experiment.
 * 15.1 - Defending predictions of outcomes of simple experiments.
 * 13.1 - Using a list, chart, picture, or tree diagram to represent outcomes.
 * 13.2 - Determining the number of possible outcomes using the Fundamental Counting Principle or other techniques.
 * 14 - Determine the theoretical probability of an event.
 * 14.3 Determining the probability of an event through simulation.

7-SP7a 7-SP7b 7-SP7c ||
 * CMP2 Correlation **
 * **Book** ||= **Investigation** || **Objective** ||
 * What Do You Expect ||= 1-4 || 7-SP7

This has moved down from 8th grade and has increased in rigor. Instead of students simply using a probability model, they are now being asked to develop a model. This is taught very thoroughly in the AMSTI unit //What Do You Expect.//
 * My Humble Opinion **