Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. [7-SP7a]

Example: If a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

b. Develop a probability model (that may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. [7-SP7b]

Example: Find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

ACOS 2009 Correlation
Third Grade

15 - Determine the likelihood of different outcomes in a simple experiment.

15.1 - Defending predictions of outcomes of simple experiments.

Seventh Grade

13.1 - Using a list, chart, picture, or tree diagram to represent outcomes.

13.2 - Determining the number of possible outcomes using the Fundamental Counting Principle or other techniques.

Eighth Grade

14 - Determine the theoretical probability of an event.

14.3 Determining the probability of an event through simulation.

CMP2 Correlation

Book

Investigation

Objective

What Do You Expect

1-4

7-SP7
7-SP7a
7-SP7b
7-SP7c

My Humble Opinion
This has moved down from 8th grade and has increased in rigor. Instead of students simply using a probability model, they are now being asked to develop a model. This is taught very thoroughly in the AMSTI unit What Do You Expect.

## 7-SP7

## Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. [7-SP7a]

- Example: If a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

b. Develop a probability model (that may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. [7-SP7b]ACOS 2009 CorrelationThird Grade

- 15 - Determine the likelihood of different outcomes in a simple experiment.
- 15.1 - Defending predictions of outcomes of simple experiments.

Seventh Grade- 13.1 - Using a list, chart, picture, or tree diagram to represent outcomes.
- 13.2 - Determining the number of possible outcomes using the Fundamental Counting Principle or other techniques.

Eighth GradeCMP2 CorrelationBookInvestigationObjective7-SP7a

7-SP7b

7-SP7c

My Humble OpinionThis has moved down from 8th grade and has increased in rigor. Instead of students simply using a probability model, they are now being asked to develop a model. This is taught very thoroughly in the AMSTI unit

What Do You Expect.